From DC to Jerusalem

I spent yesterday at the NJ State Democratic Conference so I wasn’t able to blog about the dangerous and complicated situation involving an alleged Israeli Air Force incursion into Syrian airspace. For those of you who aren’t familiar with the situation, Syrian news outlets reported on Thursday that and IAF jet breached its airspace, dumped its fuel tanks to maneuver and sped out. Israel, for its part, has largely been quiet and the United States has not really commented on the situation either. At the moment, Syria is contemplating its response. The extent of this response could result in an incredibly dangerous situation in the Middle East.

Israel’s silence and overall failure to comment on the situation should be taken as a de facto admission of guilt in this matter. Over the past few months, both Israel and Syria have gone to great pains to downplay their overall military buildups along their common border. Because there has been talk of impending war almost since the Second Lebanon War ended, the timing of this incursion is very curious. It is just too fantastic to believe that given the heightened tensions, Israel would carelessly enter Syrian airspace. It is simply an invasion of sovereignty that Bashar al-Assad could not ignore.

Some have hypothesized that Israel undertook the action to goad the Syrians into a war. It is no secret that IDF commanders have been itching to reestablish the prestige it lost in last summer’s war against Hizballah. It is not altogether clear what the objectives of such a war would be. Israel can’t honestly think that toppling Assad by marching into Damascus is either feasible or wise. Given that Israel initiated the first act-of-war, it would have zero legitimacy in its effort.

This theory really only makes sense if Israel was going to use a war with Syria as a cover for a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. This would be possible, because it is highly likely that Iran would join Syria in a war against Israel. This would almost certainly draw the US into the conflict as well. Overall, it would just be a huge nightmare – for me included, because I could easily be in Jerusalem when this mayhem finally breaks out.
The consequences of this conflict would be disastrous. While Israel and the United States would most likely destroy all of Syria, Iran would likely launch its Shehab-3 missiles on major population centers in Israel and cause a significant loss of life. Israel and the United States would probably attack Iran’s nuclear facilities in the operation as well.

If such a war were to break out, the hostilities could spread to Iraq. Turkey, a close military ally of both Israel and the United States, could be drawn in. Both Israel and the United States would need Turkish airspace and facilities to attack Iran. The price could be selling out our Kurdish allies in Iraq to a Turkish assault. Jordan would also likely be drawn in as it lies in the flight path to Iran.

Although at least marginally feasible, such a scenario is not likely to happen. Syria is not entirely stupid. They know that even if they exact damages on Israel, they would lose the war and the vast majority of their country would be destroyed. My guess is that Syria will respond either by having Hizballah launch Katyusha rockets on northern Israel or shelling Israeli positions on the Golan Heights. They could also direct terrorism in the Golan.

The fragility of this situation only underscores the need to try to reinvigorate the peace process between Israel and Syria. Under such an agreement – perhaps for a generous American military aid package, the return of the Golan Heights, international legitimacy and the probable disbandment of the Hariri Commission – Syria would cut ties with Iran, banish Palestinian terror groups from Damascus and sign a peace treaty with Israel. Syria does not have deep ties to Iran and could be cleaved from their sphere of influence. This would be crucial for American strategic interests in the region and most likely improve Israel’s security as well.

I am hopeful and relatively confident that both Israel and Syria will recognize the catastrophic consequences of a war between their two countries. But make no mistake, a war between Israel and Syria will escalate into a dangerous and costly regional war. We’re now just waiting for Syria’s move.