The buzz du-jour coming from the Middle East is that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas are negotiating based on a so-called “Declaration of Principles” ahead of the US-sponsored Middle East peace summit set to take place in the Fall. Although the mere term “declaration of principles” evokes thoughts of the disastrous Oslo Process, such an agreement could serve as the basis for a sustainable peace between Israelis and Palestinians.
Earlier this year I wrote a group policy paper about the demographic, geographic and historical issues inherent in the Israeli/Palestinian conflict. Although I can’t post the whole paper up on this Web site due to the fact that I did not write all of it, I will post some germane elements that I did in fact write:
In concert, the aforementioned geographic, demographic and historical issues represent substantial obstacles to Israeli-Palestinian reconciliation. Because of the complexity inherent in these issues, it is difficult to envision a durable peace emerging under present circumstances, even if a treaty were signed tomorrow. Instead of adopting a zero-sum paradigm toward reconciliation, both Israelis and Palestinians should accept certain assumptions in the near term, and work over a longer period of time to ensure that two viable and legitimate states are able to emerge.
The “certain assumptions” written about in the paper implies an agreement on the general terms of an agreement, while allowing for a certain process to unfold enabling the agreement to succeed.
It is my sincere belief that even were a final agreement to be signed tomorrow, the accord would not succeed over time. This has a great deal to do with the unstable realities on the ground. First, the Palestinian Authority is itself partitioned – Hamas controls Gaza while the Fatah-led emergency government controls those parts of the West Bank under PA control. Without reconciliation of these divergent elements, a viable two-state solution would be unworkable. In addition, the Palestinian economy is in such shambles that an independent Palestinian state would not survive.
The more pressing concern about the viability of a potential final accord is the Israeli settlement enterprise. After suffering a staggering defeat after the Israeli disengagement from Gaza, the settlers are once again ascendant. If Israel can’t even evacuate outposts they consider to be illegal, there is no chance they’d be able to have sufficient legitimacy to immediately withdraw and repatriate over 250,000 people from the eveacuated settlements.
The declaration of principles could be an innovative way to get around these troubles. By agreeing in principle to certain political arrangements, the view of an equitable end-game solution could provide enough momentum for Fatah to retake Gaza and for Israel to withdraw from the settlements. The important thing is that it would be an equitable solution, providing each side potential gains to show their people. My take on what these would include are:
In addition to the essential commitment to a two-state-solution, both Israelis and Palestinians must agree in principle to the division of the land more-or-less along the 1949 Armistice (Green) Line. This agreement implies an end to Israeli settlement in the vast majority of the West Bank and a division of Jerusalem.
In addition, Israel must immediately accept the existence of a link between the West Bank and Gaza while a more permanent solution is arranged.
Palestinians must agree to the existence of some sort of physical barrier between Israel and emerging Palestine – with an adequate compensation structure in place for confiscated and/or damaged property – during the implementation phase of the agreement.
Although Palestinians must accept that most refugees will return to Palestine, Israel must accept responsibility for its role in helping create the Palestinian refugee crisis.
And both sides must agree to resource sharing and conservation.
Although the particulars of such an arrangement have yet to be released, I will keep track of articles referencing the Declaration of Principles on the blog. If you would like to read the particulars of my theoretical Declaration of Principles, feel free to download the five-page summary here.
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